QX 2319 · SBP → SEA

took off 6:47 PM PT · expected to land 8:46 PM PT (scheduled 5:37 PM PT → 8:16 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
83%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ 5pm departures from SBP are usually not late

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2319 · SBP → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?