QX 2424 · SNA → SFO

departs 3:38 PM PT · arrives 5:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2424 · SNA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?