WN 236 · MDW → SAN

departs 6:07 PM CT · arrives 8:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 236 · MDW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?