WN 2636 · LAS → SAT

departs 3:13 PM PT · arrives 7:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at SAT that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2636 · LAS → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?