WN 284 · PHX → DEN

departs 5:07 PM MT · arrives 6:57 PM MT

Your aircraft is N8946L (B38M), coming in as WN 284 from SAN: still at SAN, due off about 2:57 PM PT, 14 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts +38 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
52%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 284 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?