WN 3187 · AUS → TPA

took off 9:26 AM CT · expected to land 12:25 PM ET (scheduled 8:57 AM CT → 12:30 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3187 · AUS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?