WN 4203 · STL → TPA

departs 4:57 AM CT · arrives 8:22 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 4am departures from STL are often late

↑ TPA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4203 · STL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?