WN 4841 · CMH → SAN

departs 10:46 AM ET · arrives 12:38 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8529Z (B738), coming in as WN 2910 from MDW: landed 9:36 AM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,468 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4841 · CMH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?