YX 4353 · BOS → LGA

took off 8:39 AM ET · expected to land 9:25 AM ET (scheduled 7:52 AM ET → 9:20 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.9 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.89 in

LGA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4353 · BOS → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?