YX 4395 · LGA → AVL

departs 7:06 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ AVL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.71 in

AVL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling11,822 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4395 · LGA → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?