YX 4413 · MEM → ORD

left the gate 6:46 PM CT · taxiing (scheduled 5:32 PM CT → 7:37 PM CT)

Your aircraft is N434YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4432 from DCA: landed 5:57 PM CT.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4413 · MEM → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?