YX 4422 · LGA → ILM

took off 9:23 AM ET · landed 11:06 AM ET (scheduled 8:28 AM ET → 10:27 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ILM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

ILM (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4422 · LGA → ILM

Odds over time

How late did it get to ILM?