YX 4437 · ORD → MEM

departs 3:44 PM CT · arrives 5:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MEM (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4437 · ORD → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?