YX 4449 · JFK → IND

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.75 in

IND (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4449 · JFK → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?