YX 4531 · RDU → PIT

took off 7:43 AM ET · landed 8:34 AM ET (scheduled 7:26 AM ET → 9:05 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to PIT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 2.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.30 in

PIT (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4531 · RDU → PIT

Odds over time

How late did it get to PIT?