YX 4555 · LGA → XNA

took off 7:28 AM ET · landed 9:19 AM CT (scheduled 5:59 AM ET → 8:29 AM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to XNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from LGA are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

XNA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4555 · LGA → XNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to XNA?