YX 4578 · GSO → LGA

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from GSO are usually not late

Weather at each end

GSO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.29 in

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.71 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4578 · GSO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?