AA 1286 · BNA → DFW

departs 4:57 AM CT · arrives 7:10 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1286 · BNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?