AA 1850 · PHL → PHX

took off 12:56 PM ET · expected to land 3:16 PM MT (scheduled 12:44 PM ET → 3:56 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1850 · PHL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?