AA 1866 · SMF → DFW

departs 12:09 AM PT · arrives 5:47 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12am departures from SMF are often late

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1866 · SMF → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?