BW 550 · POS → JFK

departs 7:26 PM AST · arrives 11:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at POS

↓ 7pm departures from POS are usually not late

Weather at each end

POS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,167 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BW 550 · POS → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?