F9 4523 · MCO → AUS

took off 3:02 PM ET · expected to land 4:30 PM CT (scheduled 2:45 PM ET → 4:38 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

LIVE

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4523 · MCO → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?