G4 946 · PGD → RFD

took off 9:56 AM ET · expected to land 11:32 AM CT (scheduled 9:56 AM ET → 12:01 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RFD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RFD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↓ 9am departures from PGD are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into RFD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PGD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RFD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 946 · PGD → RFD

Odds over time

How late will it get to RFD?