MQ 3430 · PHX → EUG

departs 5:49 PM MT · arrives 7:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at EUG more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EUG?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at EUG that day

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EUG (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3430 · PHX → EUG

Odds over time

How late will it get to EUG?