MQ 4009 · RDM → PHX

departs 10:55 AM PT · arrives 2:25 PM MT

Your aircraft is N253NN (E170), coming in as MQ 4009 from PHX: landed 9:56 AM PT.

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

Weather at each end

RDM (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling10,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4009 · RDM → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?