MQ 4123 · LIT → ORD

took off 2:38 PM CT · expected to land 4:05 PM CT (scheduled 12:18 PM CT → 2:14 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
78%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from LIT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIT (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4123 · LIT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?