MQ 4232 · SMF → PHX

departs 10:03 AM PT · arrives 1:09 PM MT

Your aircraft is N233NN (E170), coming in as MQ 4232 from PHX: landed 9:14 AM PT.

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4232 · SMF → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?