PT 5866 · BUF → PHL

departs 3:23 PM ET · arrives 4:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PT's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from BUF are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.07 in

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5866 · BUF → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?