QX 2280 · TUL → SAN

took off 3:05 PM CT · expected to land 3:47 PM PT (scheduled 2:45 PM CT → 4:14 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ TUL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts0 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2280 · TUL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?