QX 2326 · SAN → SMF

departs 9:21 PM PT · arrives 11:10 PM PT

Your aircraft is N663QX (E75L), coming in as QX 2463 from SLC: landed 7:50 PM PT.

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SMF (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2326 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?