WN 1500 · DAL → TPA

took off 8:52 AM CT · expected to land 11:40 AM ET (scheduled 8:36 AM CT → 12:00 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from DAL are usually not late

Weather at each end

DAL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1500 · DAL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?