WN 2981 · MCO → SAT

departs 10:32 AM ET · arrives 12:39 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8762Q (B38M), coming in as WN 636 from BNA: landed 9:36 AM ET.

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,367 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2981 · MCO → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?