WN 3361 · PDX → SMF

departs 6:11 AM PT · arrives 7:50 AM PT

Your aircraft is N8739L (B38M), coming in as WN 3295 from MDW: landed 11:46 PM PT.

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at PDX that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from PDX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.08 in

SMF (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3361 · PDX → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?