Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1005 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 1005 · DFW → SFO

departs 9:31 PM CT · arrives 11:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1005 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?