Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1416 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 1416 · LAS → PHX

departs 7:33 PM PT · arrives 9:50 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1416 · LAS → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?