Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1484 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 1484 · DFW → BNA

departs 8:50 PM CT · arrives 10:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1484 · DFW → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?