Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1841 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow

AA 1841 · PHX → ONT

departs 9:40 PM MT · arrives 10:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1841 · PHX → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?