Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2159 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 2159 · DFW → SDF

departs 8:24 PM CT · arrives 11:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2159 · DFW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?