Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2288 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 2288 · DFW → FAT

departs 9:54 PM CT · arrives 11:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2288 · DFW → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?