Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2289 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 2289 · DFW → STL

departs 9:39 PM CT · arrives 11:34 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2289 · DFW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?