Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2358 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 2358 · ORD → AUS

departs 9:06 PM CT · arrives 11:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ ORD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2358 · ORD → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?