Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3064 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 3064 · ORD → DFW

departs 7:06 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3064 · ORD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?