Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3149 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 3149 · DFW → OKC

departs 7:36 PM CT · arrives 8:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OKC?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OKC (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3149 · DFW → OKC

Odds over time

How late will it get to OKC?