Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 446 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 446 · DFW → SFO

departs 10:59 PM CT · arrives 12:43 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 446 · DFW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?