Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 901 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 901 · SFO → PHX

departs 6:59 PM PT · arrives 10:03 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 901 · SFO → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?