G4 3043 · TYS → SFB

departs 5:18 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFB?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ G4's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFB

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 3043 · TYS → SFB

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFB?