MQ 3459 · SDF → DFW

took off 8:41 AM ET · expected to land 9:33 AM CT (scheduled 6:00 AM ET → 7:25 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
98%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SDF is prone to delays

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SDF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3459 · SDF → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?