PD 651 · YYZ → LAS

departs 6:56 AM EST · arrives 8:29 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 6am departures from YYZ are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PD 651 · YYZ → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?