Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2212 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

UA 2212 · IAH → SAN

departs 2:26 PM CT · arrives 3:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2212 · IAH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?