Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1151
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 1151 · BWI → SAN
departs 8:39 PM ET · arrives 11:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 30%
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.